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predictions for 2004

The next year will be a big one, no doubt. In 2004, we’ll probably hear the first mentions of “Semantic Web” on mainstream media. Somebody’s gonna release that category-defining application that people can point to and say, “That’s what I’m talking about! That’s the Semantic Web!”

Blogs will get even more of our mindshare, especially as we get closer to the American presidential election. I fully expect blog rates to soar, both readers and writers. I can’t yet tell if something will shake the “power law” fix of the new blogarati class. If anything, it’ll be due to mega-corp marketing might. We may end the year lamenting the loss of our idealistic private playground. I hope not.

Social change will be of two opposite kinds: on the one hand, we’ll continue “dumbing down”, at least in America. As before, we’ll take our cue from television, watching the news to get our polarized talking points so we have something to say at parties. Opposite to this we’ll witness the continued growth of The Creative Class. Perhaps it’ll rise to the level of actual influence in 2004.

Who can say what a year will bring? All I know for sure is that I’ll be working my ass off to make at least one of these predictions come true.

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